Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Transmission in the United States Before Versus After Relaxation of Statewide Social Distancing Measures

BACKGROUND: Weeks after issuing social distancing orders to suppress severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission and reduce growth in cases of severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), all U.S. states and the District of Columbia partially or fully relaxed these measures. METHODS: We identified all statewide social distancing measures that were implemented and/or relaxed in the U.S. between March 10-July 15, 2020, triangulating data from state government and third-party sources. Using segmented linear regression, we estimated the extent to which relaxation of social distancing affected epidemic control, as indicated by the time-varying, state-specific effective reproduction number (Rt). RESULTS: In the eight weeks prior to relaxation, mean Rt declined by 0.012 units per day (95% CI, -0.013 to -0.012), and 46/51 jurisdictions achieved Rt < 1.0 by the date of relaxation. After relaxation of social distancing, Rt reversed course and began increasing by 0.007 units per day (95% CI, 0.006-0.007), reaching a mean Rt of 1.16 eight weeks later, with only 9/51 jurisdictions maintaining Rt <1.0. Parallel models showed similar reversals in the growth of COVID-19 cases and deaths. Indicators often used to motivate relaxation at the time of relaxation (e.g. test positivity rate <5%) predicted greater post-relaxation epidemic growth. CONCLUSIONS: We detected an immediate and significant reversal in SARS-CoV-2 epidemic suppression after relaxation of social distancing measures across the U.S. Premature relaxation of social distancing measures undermined the country's ability to control the disease burden associated with COVID-19

Characteristics and efficacy of physical activity interventions to improve cardiometabolic and psychosocial outcomes in people living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa: a protocol for a systematic review

BACKGROUND: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) has led to an increased lifespan for people living with HIV (PWH). This increased lifespan, coupled with the effects of HIV and adverse effects of ART have resulted in an increasing burden of cardiometabolic disease (CMD) among PWH. Physical activity (PA) has been proposed as an effective strategy to reduce the risk of developing cardiometabolic disease and other health complications in PWH. The aim of this paper is to review the characteristics and efficacy of PA interventions to improve cardiometabolic and psychosocial outcomes among PWH in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: The review will follow the preferred reporting items for systematic review and meta-analysis protocols (PRISMA-P). Literature searches will be conducted in PubMed, Web of Science (WoS), African Index Medicus, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), and Embase. Peer-reviewed publications will be included if they include adults (age 18 or older), PWH in sub-Saharan Africa, and a PA intervention to improve cardiometabolic outcomes and/or psychosocial outcomes. We will include randomized controlled trials and quasi-experimental study designs. Two independent reviewers will screen all abstracts and full-text articles. The study methodological quality (or bias) will be appraised using the Revised tool to assess risk of bias in randomized trials and the Downs and Black checklist. Certainty of evidence will be evaluated using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation guidelines. Meta-analyses will be conducted if our results are adequate for meta-analysis. Outcomes will be analyzed as continuous or dichotomous and meta-analyses will be conducted using random effects models with Stata computer software. DISCUSSION: This review will identify and synthesize the current evidence regarding the characteristics and efficacy of PA interventions to improve cardiometabolic and psychosocial outcomes among PWH in sub-Saharan Africa. We also plan to identify the strengths and weaknesses of evaluated interventions. Based on the evidence, recommendations will be made to promote the design and further evaluate the most promising strategies to maximize the efficacy of PA interventions in improving cardiometabolic and psychosocial outcomes in PWH in sub-Saharan Africa. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO registration ID: CRD42021271937

BMI and All-Cause Mortality in a Population-Based Cohort in Rural South Africa

OBJECTIVE: This study evaluates the association between BMI and all-cause and cause-specific mortality in South Africa. METHODS: Prospective, population-based observational cohort data from rural South Africa were analyzed. BMI was measured in 2010. Demographic characteristics were recorded and deaths were verified with verbal autopsy interview. The InterVA-5 tool was used to assign causes of death. HIV testing was conducted annually. Cox proportional hazards models were fit to estimate the effect of BMI on all-cause and cause-specific mortality, accounting for the competing risk of death from other causes. Models were adjusted for sociodemographic characteristics and HIV status, and inverse probability weighting for survey nonparticipation was used. RESULTS: The cohort consisted of 9,728 individuals. In adjusted models, those with BMI of 25.0 to 29.9 kg/m2 or 30.0 to 34.9 kg/m2 had a lower hazard of death (adjusted hazard ratio: 0.80; 95% CI: 0.69-0.92 and adjusted hazard ratio: 0.75; 95% CI: 0.60-0.93, respectively) compared with those with BMI of 18.5 to 24.9 kg/m^{2}. CONCLUSIONS: Individuals in South Africa who meet clinically defined criteria for overweight or obesity had a lower risk of all-cause mortality than those with a normal BMI. These findings were stronger for women and communicable conditions

Implementation of HIV Self-Testing to Reach Men in Rural uMkhanyakude, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. a DO-ART Trial Sub Study

Background: KwaZulu–Natal, South Africa has one of the highest HIV prevalence rates globally. Persons <35 years and men have lower rates of HIV testing. HIV self-testing (HIVST) may overcome many barriers of facility-based HIV testing in order to identify HIV positive young persons and men and link them to care. We investigated whether HIVST distribution was a feasible approach to reach men and assessed the proportion of participants who reported their HIVST results, tested positive and linked to care. / Methods: Teams comprised of a nurse, clinic research assistant, and recruiters distributed HIVST kits in rural uMkhanyakude, KwaZulu-Natal from August—November 2018 with a focus on testing men. Workplaces (farms), social venues, taxi ranks, and homesteads were used as HIVST kit distribution points following community sensitisation through community advisory boards and community leaders. HIVST kits, demonstration of use, and small incentives to report testing outcomes were provided. The Department of Health provided confirmatory testing and HIV care at clinics. / Results: Over 11 weeks in late 2018, we distributed 2,634 HIVST kits of which 2,113 (80%) were distributed to persons aged <35 years, 2,591 (98%) to men and 356 (14%) to first time testers. Of the HIVST distributed, 2,107 (80%) reported their results to the study team, and 157 (7%) tested positive. Of persons who tested positive, 107/130 (82%) reported having a confirmatory test of which 102/107 (95%) were positive and initiated on ART. No emergencies or social harms were reported. / Conclusion: Large scale distribution of HIVST kits targeting men in rural KwaZulu-Natal is feasible and highly effective in reaching men, including those who had not previously tested for HIV. While two-thirds of persons who tested HIV positive initiated ART, additional linkage strategies are needed for those who do not link after HIVST. HIVST should be used as a tool to reach men in order to achieve 95% coverage in the UNAIDS testing and care cascade in KwaZulu-Natal

Does antiretroviral therapy use affect the accuracy of HIV rapid diagnostic assays? Experience from a demographic health and surveillance site in rural South Africa

Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) are the mainstay of HIV diagnosis in the developing world but might have poor sensitivity among individuals taking antiretroviral therapy (ART). We leveraged a home-based HIV testing program linked to clinical data to compare the sensitivity of RDTs between individuals using versus not using ART. Field workers tested 6802 individuals using 2 HIV RDTs, which were compared to a single HIV immunoassay tested on dried blood spots. Approximately 5% (371/6802) tested positive by immunoassay, of whom 157 (42%) were currently on ART. The sensitivity of the Abon RDT among those never versus currently on ART was 91.6% (95% CI 88.3–94.3) and 96.6% (95% CI 88.3–94.3), respectively, and 95.4% (95% CI 92.8–97.3) versus 99.3% (95% CI 95.2–99.7) for the Advanced Quality assay. We report similar sensitivity of RDTs in ART-naïve and ART-experienced individuals, which mitigates concerns about their use among treated individuals in population-based epidemiologic surveys and those transferring care

Clinical outcomes and cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination in South Africa

Low- and middle-income countries are implementing COVID-19 vaccination strategies in light of varying vaccine efficacies and costs, supply shortages, and resource constraints. Here, we use a microsimulation model to evaluate clinical outcomes and cost-effectiveness of a COVID-19 vaccination program in South Africa. We varied vaccination coverage, pace, acceptance, effectiveness, and cost as well as epidemic dynamics. Providing vaccines to at least 40% of the population and prioritizing vaccine rollout prevented >9 million infections and >73,000 deaths and reduced costs due to fewer hospitalizations. Model results were most sensitive to assumptions about epidemic growth and prevalence of prior immunity to SARS-CoV-2, though the vaccination program still provided high value and decreased both deaths and health care costs across a wide range of assumptions. Vaccination program implementation factors, including prompt procurement, distribution, and rollout, are likely more influential than characteristics of the vaccine itself in maximizing public health benefits and economic efficiency

Economic, social and demographic impacts of drought on treatment adherence among people living with HIV in rural South Africa: A qualitative analysis

The 2015 El Niño-triggered drought in Southern Africa caused widespread economic and livelihood disruption in South Africa, imposing multiple physical and health challenges for rural populations including people living with HIV (PLHIV). We examined the economic, social and demographic impacts of drought drawing on 27 in-depth interviews in two cohorts of PLHIV in Hlabisa, uMkhanyakude district, KwaZulu-Natal. Thematic analysis revealed how drought-enforced soil water depletion, dried-up rivers, and dams culminated in a continuum of events such as loss of livestock, reduced agricultural production, and insufficient access to water and food which was understood to indirectly have a negative impact on HIV treatment adherence. This was mediated through disruptions in incomes, livelihoods and food systems, increased risk to general health, forced mobility and exacerbation of contextual vulnerabilities linked to poverty and unemployment. The systems approach, drawn from interview themes, hypothesises the complex pathways of plausible networks of impacts from drought through varying socioeconomic factors, exacerbating longstanding contextual precarity, and ultimately challenging HIV care utilisation. Understanding the multidimensional relationships between climate change, especially drought, and poor HIV care outcomes through the prism of contextual vulnerabilities is vital for shaping policy interventions

Impairment in Activities of Daily Living and unmet need for care among older adults: A population-based study from Burkina Faso

OBJECTIVES: The importance of impairment in performing Activities of Daily Living (ADL) is likely to increase in sub-Saharan Africa since few care options for affected people exist. This study investigated the prevalence of ADL impairment, the extent to which care-need was met and described characteristics of people with ADL impairment and unmet need in Burkina Faso. METHODS: This study used data from the CRSN Heidelberg Aging Study, a population-based study among 3,026 adults aged over 40 years conducted in rural Burkina Faso. Information on six basic ADL items was sought, with a follow-up question asking whether care-needs were not met, partially met or met. Bivariable correlations and multivariable logistic regression were used to determine sociodemographic and health characteristics associated with ADL impairment and unmet need. RESULTS: ADL impairment of any kind was reported by 1,202 (39.7%) respondents and was associated with older age (Adjusted Odds Ratio: 1.05 [95% CI: 1.04-1.06]), being a woman (1.33 [1.06-1.60]) and reporting depressive symptoms (1.90 [1.65-2.18]). Among those with ADL impairment, 67.8% had at least one unmet need. Severe ADL impairment was found in 202 (6.7%) respondents, who reported lower prevalence of unmet need (43.1%). Severe ADL impairment was associated with depressive symptoms (2.55 [2.11-3.07]) to a stronger degree than any ADL impairment. DISCUSSION: Prevalence of ADL impairment and unmet need was high in this setting. Variation in impairment across the population highlighted key groups for future interventions. Unmet need for care was highest in middle-aged adults, indicating a gap in care provision

Renal impairment in a rural African antiretroviral programme

Background: There is little knowledge regarding the prevalence and nature of renal impairment in African populations initiating antiretroviral treatment, nor evidence to inform the most cost effective methods of screening for renal impairment. With the increasing availability of the potentially nephrotixic drug, tenofovir, such information is important for the planning of antiretroviral programmes Methods: (i) Retrospective review of the prevalence and risk factors for impaired renal function in 2189 individuals initiating antiretroviral treatment in a rural African setting between 2004 and 2007 (ii) A prospective study of 149 consecutive patients initiating antiretrovirals to assess the utility of urine analysis for the detection of impaired renal function. Severe renal and moderately impaired renal function were defined as an estimated GFR of ≤ 30 mls/min/1.73 m2 and 30–60 mls/min/1.73 m2 respectively. Logistic regression was used to determine odds ratio (OR) of significantly impaired renal function (combining severe and moderate impairment). Co-variates for analysis were age, sex and CD4 count at initiation. Results: (i) There was a low prevalence of severe renal impairment (29/2189, 1.3% 95% C.I. 0.8–1.8) whereas moderate renal impairment was more frequent (287/2189, 13.1% 95% C.I. 11.6–14.5) with many patients having advanced immunosuppression at treatment initiation (median CD4 120 cells/μl). In multivariable logistic regression age over 40 (aOR 4.65, 95% C.I. 3.54–6.1), male gender (aOR 1.89, 95% C.I. 1.39–2.56) and CD4<100 cells/ul (aOR 1.4, 95% C.I. 1.07–1.82) were associated with risk of significant renal impairment (ii) In 149 consecutive patients, urine analysis had poor sensitivity and specificity for detecting impaired renal function. Conclusion: In this rural African setting, significant renal impairment is uncommon in patients initiating antiretrovirals. Urine analysis alone may be inadequate for identification of those with impaired renal function where resources for biochemistry are limited